(#31-1) November 1 2014. The Mid-Terms and my crystal ball. Unfortunately, I can’t find the thing. I shall just have to guess.

AN INFORMED OPINION—OR DO I MEAN A WILD-ASS GUESS (WAG)?

THE WAG HAS IT

THE REPUBLICANS WILL NOT DO AS WELL AS WIDELY FORECAST

The consensus seems to be that the Republicans will make significant gains because:

• The opposition normally does in the Mid-Terms—especially the second Mid-Terms.
• President Obama has low approval ratings.
• Democrats are less motivated to vote than Republicans.
• The Republican campaign to inhibit voting by lower income and minority Democrats is enjoying considerable success.
• Gerrymandering.
• Voters remain strongly influenced by social issues—and as a result—continue to have a tendency to vote against their own economic interests.
• Voters tend to forget that the Republican track record in government was less less than stellar (apart from endocrine disrupters and other horrible things in our water supply—where we still have water—there must be something else to induce this extraordinary level of voter amnesia)..
• Voters tend to blame both parties equally for government gridlock even though the balance of the evidence puts the blame squarely in the Republican camp.
• Voters are slowly (very slowly) beginning to work out that the economic system is rigged, but still haven’t worked out that the Republicans are the prime culprits in this regard.
• Since most voters are seeing their incomes decline in real terms, they want to lash out and protest  despite the fact that by traditional economic measurements the economy is beginning to do quite well.
• The sheer weight of money deployed by the Koch brothers and similar will, in the end, prove irresistible.

All of these are persuasive arguments—and the consistent inability of the Democrats to marshal their philosophy and policies clearly and succinctly remains a cause for concern—but I still think that the Republican effort will not prove to be as fruitful as they hope.

Either way, their position seems likely to have deteriorated significantly by the time the 2016 Presidential Elections come around.

I have to say, as I conclude, that the media thrust seems to be that the Democrats are going to take a pounding in the Mid-Terms—so I’m being a contrarian..

344 words.

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