Sunday, April 20, 2014

April 21 2014: THINKING IS HARD—AND IT WILL PROBABLY GET YOU INTO TROUBLE—BUT IT IS WORTH IT


WHAT MOST PEOPLE THINK IS NOT NECESSARILY TRUE. At a relatively early age I discovered that a great deal of what I was told just wasn’t true—virtually regardless of the subject. It could be politics, sex, religion, or how to make an omelet—but received wisdom seemed to be contradicted by the evidence more often than not. However, a significant percentage of the population didn’t seem to be influenced by the evidence, but was guided by vested interests, prejudice, group-think and emotion. This didn’t mean they were good or bad—or even ignorant. It merely meant that they didn’t want to go through life having to think too hard. They took the view that it was much easier to go with the flow. And it is.

WHAT TO DO WITH THIS DANGEROUS DISCOVERY. I wasn’t quite sure what to do with this discovery about truth—or the lack of it—at first, but it has had a profound effect on the choices I have made—which have frequently not been to my financial advantage. However, though clearly I need money as much as anyone, I have never craved it or been much impressed by greed, Instead, I gave up a well paid corporate job in my later twenties because—in essence—I craved:

  • Freedom from the restrictions that inevitably seemed to be imposed by a corporate environment.
  • The time to research (with a heavy emphasis on reading) and thinking.
  • The time to fail at writing and then try again until I had mastered that craft to an acceptable level—whereupon I would raise the bar.
  • A considerable amount of solitude so that I could focus on my goals.
  • To change things for the better in some small way.
  • Good friends, drinkable wine, and an active sex life.

I have used the term ‘craved’ quite deliberately. I was quite desperate to break away from a way of life I didn’t believe in—and I knew time was something I couldn’t buy, rent, or make love to. But I could put it to good use—and, mostly, I have. Here, let me make a factual statement. It is relatively easy to get published today—but to get promoted is another matter entirely,

You’ll notice that I haven’t listed either fame or fortune. I don’t care about fame except in relation to its helping sell my books—and, for whatever reason, I don’t happen to be particularly materialistic (though I do like having everything I need to work). Outside of that—from cars to condoms—I only need what  is necessary at the time. All too often it is lust. Better if it is lust and love. Best of all if it is intimacy—a truly divine state, There is truly nothing better than holding someone you love, desire, and trust in your arms—and can really talk to. ‘Ecstasy’ may describe it—but it doesn’t come close.  And the most important component? Women know this—and we men flee it. It is trust.

THINKING CAME FIRST ORIGINALLY. Funnily enough, my focus wasn’t on writing originally. It was on thinking—because I was convinced that there were answers out there which we could find if only we bothered to look—and they would lead, inevitably to writing. In fact, I gave serious thought to joining a think tank (and may yet on some basis) but eventually discovered that all too many weren’t there to think at all, but were, essentially, institutions set up to give credence to a particular point of view. That is particularly the case where Right Wing think tanks are concerned. They are mostly no more than instruments of propaganda for the ultra-rich. That’s a great pity because it not only poisons the public debate, but denigrates the concept of what a multi-disciplinary think tank can accomplish. In essence a think tank should be about perspective—because people who function solely within a discipline tend to become conformist and blinkered. A great deal of Steve Job’s originality came from his multi-disciplinary approach. When developing the Mac, he didn’t just hire computer scientists.

ONCE UPON A HANGING. It didn’t quite work out that way. In fact the compulsion to write seized me like some irresistible force field—to the point where I had very little choice in the matter. I then discovered the hanging body which led me to write GAMES OF THE HANGMAN. After that, I knew that writing fiction would almost certainly dominate my life, even though my wider social concerns would still be of considerable import. I also realized that there was a great deal I could say about real issues through fiction—and that if I could bring a little distraction into people’s lives through storytelling, why, that was a worthwhile goal just in itself. And the actual writing process is so immensely satisfying that I can’t even describe it adequately. I just give thanks every day, I chose this particular pathe.

HAS EVERYTHING WORKED OUT AS PLANNED? I was going to write, “No—life doesn’t work like that,” but then realized that it mostly has developed along the lines I hoped for—even though I have slipped and stumbled on the way. But the truth is that I have had a fascinating life, and, despite various ups and downs, it only seems to get better. God knows, I have made plenty of mistakes and have lost my way on occasions, but the secret is to pick yourself up, get back on track—and just hang in there. And that is one bit of conventional wisdom I believe in.

I have been prompted to write this piece by an article in 99u.com  on that one man phenomenon, ELON MUSK—he of Paypal, Tesla and SpaceX.

Argue with facts, not experiences.

To Musk, decisions should not be based on prior experiences. He encourages thinking based on “first principles” — boiling a situation down to its basic, fundamental truths and then reasoning up from there.

An example of first principles thinking: when Musk was estimating the cost of building the first SpaceX rockets, he could have simply used comparable products on the market as a benchmark. Making decisions using “common knowledge” is the antithesis of first principles thinking. Instead, his team analyzed the necessary parts of a rocket, then researched the prices of the raw materials of parts firsthand. As a result, the SpaceX team was surprised to learn that they could build a rocket that cost “around two percent of the typical price.”

Making decisions using “common knowledge” is the antithesis of first principles thinking.

In meetings, arguing with facts and first principles takes a lot more mental energy, but doing so can improve the quality of your decisions. By looking at a situation from the bottom up, Musk prevents intellectually lazy arguments like “well, that’s how much a rocket costs” or “that’s how we did it at NASA.”

A CONFESSION: I WAS INVOLVED IN A SPACE PROJECT TOO. If we thought and acted like Elon Musk, there would scarcely be a problem in the U.S. we couldn’t solve. By the way, in passing, I should probably mention that I was involved with a space project in the Nineties. It started off with my researching the Gerard Bull supergun for a book, THE DEVIL’S FOOTPRINT. As a consequence of my son, Christian O’Reilly’s diligence (he’s an award winning playwright now), according to Livermore, we ended up with more information on that subject than the CIA (Incidentally, CIA don’t say ‘THE CIA.’ They just say ‘CIA.’ Its an insider thing. Similarly, those who work in the Pentagon, rarely call it that. They refer to it as ‘the Building.). That led to Livermore asking for our supergun files and to my being invited to see Livermore’s very own supergun shoot—and to meet Edward Teller (among other remarkable people). Teller, in case you have forgotten, is known as the “Father of the Hydrogen Bomb,” and was the inspiration for Doctor Strangelove. After that, I was invited to help the team involved commercialize the project. Like a mad fool, I did for a while because I’m a sucker for high adventure—and the idea of shooting stuff into space at a much lower cost than rocketry appealed to me. But the team never quite got its act together—good science but fundamantal personality differences—and  I was living in Ireland at the time. Hard to influence events from such a distance. Be that as it may, Elon Musks—great thinkers and leaders— are not that common. But it was fascinating, cutting edge, and fun—and may happen yet. Whatever their differences, they are great people—and I feel privileged to have been involved—and I love Livermore. All that brainpower—and all that plutonium. Just light the blue touch-paper and retreat a few hundred miles. 

One matter that hasn’t been raised—and should be—concerns costs. If Elon Musk’s findings about the cost of building a rocket are correct—some 2 percent of the generally accepted figure—it would appear as if NASA has allowed itself to be ripped off for decades. If so—and the evidence is compelling—that would be indicative of yet more public/private corruption. This is a great country (or could be) but corruption and greed are rampant. Within the business world it has become cultural—which means doing whatever is necessary (as you see it) to make a profit is acceptable). I don’t share those value.


Thumbs upTHE SONG PRETTY THINGS BY RUFUS WAINWRIGHT. If it doesn't move you, you are made of stone.


April 20 2014: SENSE, SEX, AND NO SENSE AT ALL—SOMETIMES A STORY MAKES

“It is not time or opportunity that is to determine intimacy;—it is disposition alone. Seven years would be insufficient to make some people acquainted with each other, and seven days are more than enough for others.”

Jane Austen, Sense and Sensibility


THE CHARACTER OF ONE’S CHARACTERS. It is quite strange the way stories develop ‘on the page’—by which I really mean the way characters grow in your mind as if they had minds of their own. Now clearly they can’t have because they are fictional. On the other hand, as you get to know your own characters, they really do seem to take a grip on the story as if they were real people—with their own distinctive outlooks on life, and their own dreams and desires..

INVISIBLE FRIENDS. I spend a great deal of time with my characters—much as if they were friends—and tend to visit with them (so to speak) even when I’m not writing about them. I don’t do that with characters I have killed off (I write thrillers after all) but with characters I intend to write about again. For instance, where Hugo Fitzduane—the protagonist of my first three books—is concerned, it is almost as if he is one of my closest friends. Strangely enough, I didn’t like him much at the beginning—I preferred Shane Kilmara (Fitzduane’s former commanding officer and friend) but Hugo grew on me. He’s decent man, as we say in Ireland.

One trick I have discovered is that it is vastly helpful to think of characters doing normal things like shopping or putting out the garbage in addition to their role in the storyline. That helps to flesh them out—even if I never use that specific mental image in the context of a story.

BLENDED SO THEY STIR. Most of my characters have started off as real people—or blends of real people—but I have noticed that as I have become more experienced I seem to be able to develop characters without consciously relying on an original model. God alone knows what my subconscious is up to. It has neither morals nor scruples (so I’m told) but is consistently creative.

WHITHER A SEXUAL WOMAN? I’m currently wrestling with a secondary character who should be no longer featuring in the main storyline at this stage but who is intriguing me greatly. She is delightfully human—and one of the twists results from her sleeping with the wrong man (hard to believe, but I’m told that happens occasionally).  Her motive? She is in her early fifties, and was as horny as hell.

THE CLIMAX? I’M COGITATING. As of now, I have no idea how matters will evolve. Well, I have some ideas about the evolution part—but not about the resolution. And I’m not sure I have the courage to write what I really want to write. But, I’m working on it—and perhaps I do.


Saturday, April 19, 2014

April 19 2014: A SURPRISING, AND RATHER PLEASANT, DISCOVERY

“I love deadlines. I love the whooshing noise they make as they go by.”

Douglas Adams, The Salmon of Doubt

“After nourishment, shelter and companionship, stories are the thing we need most in the world.”

Philip Pullman


I’M LATE, I’M LATE… I’m running a day late on blogging—not because I haven’t written the blog—but because I’m reluctant to post it immediately. It’s too serious—and I feel the need for some light relief.

For me? Not so much. I can write about the structural problems of the U.S. economy with much good cheer until the cows come home—but I appreciate that such is not to everybody’s taste. Actually, that is one important reason why our movers and shakers get away with what they do. They understand that most of us don’t want to know what is going on. To stay well informed is hard work—and many regard it as pointless. Why be concerned with what you cannot change?

MAD FOOLS AS WE ARE, WE BELIEVE THAT WORDS CAN CHANGE THE WORLD—AND, DAMN IT—THEY DO. Well, the answer to that last point is that some of us writers think we can change things (through writing, of course). Behind our crusty exteriors, and relentless intellectual curiosity (show some sympathy—I have to live with my mind), the evidence would suggest we are eternal optimists. Good grief! I’m in shock at such a discovery. I’ve never thought of myself as an optimist—I tend to associate that with a certain naivety—but it would appear to be true. Who knew!


Thumbs upGRAMMARLY APP

I have been using this with Chrome—and it’s excellent.


Friday, April 18, 2014

April 18 2014: WHY SHOULD A THRILLER WRITER BE SO FASCINATED BY ECONOMICS? AN ATTEMPT TO FIND AN ANSWER

Whatever you can do, or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius, power and magic in it.
Begin it now.

Goethe


I spend a great deal of time researching, thinking about, and writing about this Great Nation’s economic problems—and sometimes I wonder why. After all, normal people seem to quite content with sports or family or kayaking or sex—directly relevant activities—and don’t give a fig about matters which they believe they they can’t do anything about (and which, all too often are perceived as being downright depressing).

In truth, I don’t know the full answer to my own question—but I’m going to hazard an attempt, if only to justify to myself the considerable time and effort I devote to this area. After all, I’m a thriller writer—or am I more a thinker who writes thrillers? But that is a separate question. 

  • PLEASURE. Whether the news is good or bad, I don’t find economics depressing at all. Indeed I find it intellectually stimulating to the point of being fascinating—so for me learning more and more each day about the U.S. economy (and related culture) is sheer pleasure. Flaws and all, this is a genuinely Great Nation—albeit currently operating way below its potential—and I feel privileged to be able to study it. I did Ancient Roman history as my special subject in school—and always wanted to go back in time and experience it first hand. Well, in the absence of a Time Machine, the U.S. is a very acceptable compromise—and I note that bread and circuses to distract the masses (us) are still very much in vogue.
  • CHALLENGE. Much like some people love puzzles, I love the challenge of economics—and, innate to the way I work, is searching for solutions. That is difficult, but fun—and it is wonderfully satisfying when you do find answers.
  • HABIT. I’m formally trained in economics—I have a masters——so I have a foundation of expertise to build on. That isn’t to say I agree with much of what I was taught—to put it tactfully, a great deal of economic theory is not supported by the evidence—but, at least, when I break the rules, I know I’m breaking them. And I started my degree at the age of 16 over half a century ago so the habit of paying attention to the economy is pretty well ingrained.
  • APTITUDE. They say you gravitate towards things you are good at. Well, there are many things which I seem to have scant talent for—computers being one of them (though I try)—but I feel extremely comfortable with economics, and tend to be more right than wrong when it comes to evaluating this sector. That said, I have scant interest in statistical forecasting, but instead tend to focus on identifying structural problems and trying to find solutions. Here, the good news—at least in my opinion—is that there are answers to almost all the difficulties we face. So why don’t we apply them? Since when were humans rational—let alone observant and well informed? In fact, in many cases we are not even aware of the problem. This has led me to the conclusion that not many people understand economics—including many economists. Most economists are trained to be statistically oriented—and statistics certainly have their uses—but I hold to the view that economics should primarily be focused on human behavior (which dovetails neatly with my writing). If you want to know a little jargon, that makes me a behavioral economist.
  • DUTY. Many would disagree with me, on the grounds that the everyday business of living is demanding enough without keeping track of either political issues or economics data, but I tend to think that it is the duty of every person to be reasonably well informed. I don’t see how democracy can work effectively if voters are largely ignorant (which may explain our current plight).
  • ACTION. I don’t feel remotely helpless when it comes to making a difference in this economy. After all, I’m a professional author and communicator—so, apart from writing my other books, intend to communicate my thoughts about the economy until I drop. Will they have any impact? All communication has some impact (a concept worth thinking about)—and you just have to stay with it and display fortitude. Fortunately, I have precious experience of pushing for change in Ireland—which looked impossible at the time—but which eventually we achieved (though the country went nuts over property some years later and took a couple of steps back). Change rarely happens at a nice regular comfortable pace—and it can be unpredictable, and there will be setbacks. But, it is achievable. As Goethe so rightly said: “Begin it now.” Frankly, we’d better—because if we continue on our present flight path, this wonderful country will be no fun at all for most Americans in an alarmingly short time. And no, that is not a statistical prediction. It is self-evident.

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Thursday, April 17, 2014

April 17 2014: CORPORATE TAXES GO DOWN. THOSE OF MOST AMERICANS DO NOT—SO WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT IT? VIRTUALLY NOTHING. IT GETS WORSE. 26 FORTUNE 500 COUNTRIES PAID NO FEDERAL INCOME TAX OVER THE MOST RECENT FIVE YEAR PERIOD—INCLUDING GE AND BOEING. THIS IS WRONG


SOME OF THE CORPORATIONS WHICH PAID NO FEDERAL INCOME TAX OVER THE MOST RECENT FIVE YEAR PERIOD

According to a study by the advocacy group Citizens for Tax Justice (CTJ), 26 Fortune 500 corporations paid no federal corporate income tax over the most recent five-year period. In fact, according to CTJ, they generated so many tax breaks that they reported negative taxes and often received a rebate check.

Corporation and 2008-2012 Rate

1. Pepco Holdings -33.0%

2. PG&E Corp. -16.7%

3. NiSource -13.6%

4. Wisconsin Energy -13.5%

5. General Electric -11.1%

6. CenterPoint Energy -8.5%

7. Integrys Energy Group -8.2%

8. Atmos Energy -7.7%

9. Tenet Healthcare -6.0%

10. American Electric Power -5.8%

11. Ryder System -4.7%

12. Con-way -3.5%

13. Duke Energy -3.3%

14. Priceline.com -3.0%

15. FirstEnergy -3.0%

16. Apache -2.4%

17. Interpublic Group -2.1%

18. Verizon Communications -1.8%

19. NextEra Energy -1.6%

20. Consolidated Edison -.1%

21. CMS Energy -1.1%

22. Boeing -1.0%

23. Northeast Utilities -0.7%

24. Corning -0.3%

25. Paccar Rate -0.1%

26. MetroPCS Communications -0.1%

212COMMENTS

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

April 16 2014: WHEN THE MOON WAS BLOOD

"People are living longer than ever before, a phenomenon undoubtedly made necessary by the 30-year mortgage."

Doug Larson



Thumbs upTHE PRICE OF INEQUALITY: HOW TODAY’S DIVIDED SOCIETY ENDANGERS OUR FUTURE – by Joseph E. Stiglitz

A beautifully written, impeccably researched book, which more than makes its case.


Tuesday, April 15, 2014

April 15 2014: GOOD GRIEF—IT FLIES. STRANGE MACHINES & HONED HUMOR

"Money can't buy happiness, but it can buy you the kind of misery you prefer. "

Author Unknown


The Black Knight Transformer during its first flight

STRANGE MACHINES

This is THE BLACK KNIGHT TRANSFORMER on its first test flight. It combines the capabilities of a helicopter with those of an off-road vehicle. The developer is Advanced Tactics of El Segundo, California.

When the AT Black Knight Transformer is operational, it will be a streamlined aircraft with turbo diesel engines capable of handling 1,000 lb (453 kg) or five passengers with a 250 nautical mile (463 km) range at 130 knots (241 km/h). On the ground, it will be able to haul 1,600 lb (726 kg) or eight passengers and manage 70 mph (over 110 km/h)

The combination of multi-rotors plus sophisticated computerized controls makes for a mechanically simpler—and less expensive—vehicle than a classic helicopter. I wrote about a little while back but it hadn’t flown then.


HONED HUMOR

A Member of Parliament to Disraeli: “Sir, you will either die on the gallows or of some unspeakable disease.” “That depends, Sir,” said Disraeli, “whether I embrace your policies or your mistress.”

“He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire.” – Winston Churchill

I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure.” Clarence Darrow

“He has never been known to use a word that might send a reader to the dictionary.” – William Faulkner (about Ernest Hemingway)

“Thank you for sending me a copy of your book; I’ll waste no time reading it.” – Moses Hadas

“I didn’t attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it.” Mark Twain

“He has no enemies, but is intensely disliked by his friends.” – Oscar Wilde

“I am enclosing two tickets to the first night of my new play; bring a friend, if you have one.” – George Bernard Shaw to Winston Churchill.

“Cannot possibly attend first night, will attend second … if there is one.” – Winston Churchill, in response.

“I feel so miserable without you; it’s almost like having you here.” -Stephen Bishop

“I’ve just learned about his illness. Let’s hope it’s nothing trivial.” -Irvin S. Cobb

“He is not only dull himself; he is the cause of dullness in others.” -Samuel Johnson

“He is simply a shiver looking for a spine to run up.” – Paul Keating

“In order to avoid being called a flirt, she always yielded easily.” – Charles, Count Talleyrand

“His mother should have thrown him away and kept the stork.” – Mae West

“Some cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever they go.” – Oscar Wilde

“He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts… for support rather than illumination.” – Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

“I’ve had a perfectly wonderful evening. But this wasn’t it.” – Groucho Marx


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